Health forecasting

Health forecasting is a new healthcare discipline initiated by the Met Office when Dr William Bird, a GP became its first Clinical Director in 2002. It is currently the subject of an innovative project run jointly by the Met Office and the National Health Service (NHS) in the United Kingdom.

The natural environment affects human health. There are many cases in which the weather has a direct or indirect affect on the health of an individual. These include:

 Heat that causes up to a 30% increase in mortality amongst the elderly and very young. Prevention can save lives. Cold is still a big killer in the UK contributing to 30-40 thousand deaths each winter. Prevention consists of keeping active, eating well, dressing up appropriately especially hat gloves and coat when outside and keeeping the indoor temperature at 21C. Thunderstorms can cause asthma epidemics if they occur during high levels of either pollen or fungal spores in the summer. Low boundary layer may increase the the way viruses are transmitted by increasing the amount of stagnant air. 

Health forecasts help professionals and patients know when and where there is a risk of illness. Through this understanding, preventative action can be taken and healthcare capacity (ie hospitals and doctors) managed to reduce illness and death.

The main strand of the Health Forecasting project is forecasting the risk of exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). COPD Health Forecasts are used to drive the provision of anticipatory care to COPD patients, helping to ensure patients with these long-term conditions achieve their potential for independence and wellbeing. This is being run in 40 Primary Care Trusts and evidence from several trusts show significant reduction in emergency admissions by up to 80%.

On 26 February 2007, the project won in the Innovative Service Award category at the Health and Social Care Awards 2006. The Health and Social Care Awards are run annually in partnership between the Department of Health and the NHS Institute for Innovation and Improvement and are the most important opportunity within the NHS and social care to identify, recognise and reward excellence in the provision of care at the frontline. The specific award recognises an innovative, new or improved service that is benefiting the delivery of healthcare for patients, users and carers.